Polling for the 294-member Assembly was conducted in two phases, on April 23 and April 29. By 11 am on April 29, West Bengal reported a voter turnout of 39.97%. This phase covers 142 of the 294 Assembly seats, involving approximately 3.21 crore voters.

Key facts:

• The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4, 2026.
• Majority of exit polls suggest that the BJP has an edge over the ruling TMC.
• Today’s Chanakya predicted BJP could secure 192 seats (plus/minus 11 seats) and TMC around 100 seats (plus/minus 11 seats).

Sourav Ganguly remarked on the unpredictability of election results. “How can I answer such a question? Only on Monday, when the ballot box opens, will we all know the answer,” he said. He noted that in the previous phase, voting percentages were above 90%.

The main contest in these elections is between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While many anticipate a close race, uncertainties remain until votes are counted.

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The Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to secure 60-65 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win 3-5 seats. The majority mark in the Kerala Assembly is 71 seats.

The 2026 Assembly election follows a historic verdict in the 2021 polls, when the LDF broke Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments every five years. This election marks a significant shift in the state’s political landscape.

According to exit polls, the UDF is predicted to win in a neck-and-neck contest with the LDF. Voter turnout in Kerala reached 78.27%, reflecting strong public engagement in this electoral process.

Key projections:

• The UDF is expected to win between 70-75 seats according to P-Marq.
• The LDF’s projected seat count ranges from 60-65 based on exit polls.
• The NDA’s anticipated performance is between 3-5 seats.

Yet, experts caution that exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be wrong on result day. The final results will be announced on May 4.

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Before this prediction, expectations centered around the traditional powerhouses: DMK and AIADMK. The DMK-led ruling bloc was anticipated to maintain its dominance. However, recent exit polls reveal a significant shift in voter sentiment.

According to the latest data, TVK is projected to win between 98 and 120 seats, potentially matching the DMK’s vote share of around 35%. This marks a notable change in the region’s political dynamics.

The DMK-INC+ coalition is now projected to secure 92 to 110 seats, while the NDA is expected to gain only 22 to 32 seats. The total number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly is 234, with a halfway mark of 118 required to form a government.

Vijay emerges as the most preferred choice for Chief Minister, garnering 37% support compared to MK Stalin’s 35%. Particularly among first-time voters aged 18-19, TVK enjoys strong backing at 68%, with 59% support from those aged 20-29.

A significant factor driving this support is the desire for change; 35% of voters cited this as their primary reason for backing TVK. Among TVK supporters, this figure rises dramatically to 77%. This trend indicates a broader appeal that cuts across various communities, including OBC and SC voters as well as minority groups.

Pradeep Gupta noted that “Vijay’s rise parallels that of former chief ministers MG Ramachandran (MGR) in Tamil Nadu and NT Ram Rao in Andhra Pradesh.” He emphasized that TVK has emerged as a third force in Tamil Nadu politics. If these projections hold true, TVK could become the largest party and play a crucial role in forming a government amidst a fractured mandate.

The desire for change appears to be the defining theme of this election cycle. As voters seek alternatives to established parties, TVK’s emergence could redefine alliances and strategies moving forward.

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