The Iran-Israel war began with the US and Israel launching assaults against Iran on February 28, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This marked a significant escalation in hostilities, leading to severe consequences for both nations. Currently, Iran and Israel are experiencing severe ‘de facto’ lockdowns due to ongoing air and missile strikes, infrastructure collapse, and travel bans.

Israel is under a state of high military alert, although there is no nationwide lockdown. Instead, strict guidelines have been issued that effectively create a partial lockdown in many areas. Meanwhile, Iran has become largely inaccessible for standard activity, with massive waves of airstrikes targeting its infrastructure and military facilities.

In addition to the humanitarian crisis, the conflict has severely impacted the global oil market. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, is currently under a blockade, leading to a staggering 97% drop in traffic. This disruption has triggered a global oil supply shock, with Brent crude prices soaring to between $100 and $120 per barrel during the crisis.

Casualties have been significant, with reports indicating that over 1,900 to over 3,000 people have been killed in Iran, alongside at least 15-17 deaths in Israel since the conflict began. The situation has also escalated in Lebanon, where around 1,000 deaths have been reported since Hezbollah entered the conflict.

Airspace across much of the Middle East is heavily restricted or closed, grounding millions of passengers and stranding travelers. Panic has even spread to countries like India, where rumors of a potential lockdown arose, although the government confirmed there is no planned lockdown.

Internationally, the International Energy Agency has characterized the situation as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Observers note that the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East are still difficult to predict, with Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting that the estimates of impact could be compared to those of the coronavirus epidemic.

As the situation evolves, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized the need for readiness in facing unforeseen challenges, while the focus remains on ensuring an uninterrupted supply of petroleum products, liquefied petroleum gas, and fertilizers. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the potential for a complete lockdown in either Iran or Israel, but severe movement restrictions are currently in place.

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The conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel has entered its 18th day with intensifying military action and rising concerns over global energy supplies and security. The Fujairah oil hub, a critical energy facility in the United Arab Emirates, has been repeatedly targeted by Iranian drones, raising alarms about the stability of the region and the potential for wider implications on global oil markets.

On March 17, 2026, a drone attack sparked a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. Fortunately, no casualties were reported from this incident, as confirmed by Victoria Gatenby, who stated, “Authorities are dealing with that at the moment. No one was injured.” This attack is part of a broader pattern, with Iran having fired more than 1,800 missiles and drones at the UAE since the onset of the conflict.

The situation in Fujairah is particularly concerning, as it handles around 1 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for roughly 1% of global oil demand. The ongoing hostilities have led to significant disruptions in the UAE’s daily oil production, forcing the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to implement production cuts and temporarily suspend certain operations due to safety concerns.

In response to the escalating threats, the UAE’s airspace was closed for several hours due to warnings of missile attacks from Iran. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have condemned these Iranian attacks, pledging to defend their territories against further aggression. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior confirmed, “No injuries recorded,” following the latest drone strike, indicating a precarious balance of safety amid ongoing threats.

The targeting of Fujairah underscores how quickly the conflict can expand and impact critical global systems. With all Gulf Arab states reporting more than 2,000 missile and drone attacks since the war began, the regional security landscape has become increasingly volatile. Observers note that these attacks from Iran are still causing a huge disruption in this region, raising questions about the future stability of oil supplies and the security of Gulf nations.

Iran has justified its attacks on Gulf countries by arguing that US military bases make those states legitimate targets. This rationale has heightened tensions not only between Iran and Israel but also among the broader coalition of Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, which are now facing direct threats to their sovereignty and security.

As the conflict continues to unfold, officials and analysts are closely monitoring the situation, anticipating further developments that could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The ongoing military actions and their implications for global energy supplies remain a focal point of concern for governments and markets alike. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the potential for escalation or diplomatic resolutions, leaving the future uncertain.

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On March 12, 2026, two oil tankers carrying roughly 3 million barrels of West Asian oil successfully arrived in India after transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Among them, the Liberia-flagged Shenlong is transporting around 1 million barrels of Saudi Arabian crude oil, while an India-flagged VLCC is carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude from Iraq.

The arrival of these tankers has raised hopes for enhanced energy supplies to India, which relies on imports for around 60% of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) requirement, with 90% of these imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomatic Engagements

India’s External Affairs Minister, Randhir Jaiswal, noted that he and Iran’s Foreign Minister have engaged in three conversations recently. “The objective of the diplomatic engagement was to keep the sea route open for Indian vessels so that shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LPG) continue without major disruption,” he stated.

However, disruptions linked to ongoing conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran, along with instability around the Strait of Hormuz, have triggered a shortage of commercial LPG in India. This situation has particularly affected the hospitality sector, which relies heavily on stable LPG supplies.

Market Response

On the same day, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) recorded a total traded volume of 56,34,938 shares. The stock opened at ₹157.40, reflecting a 2.01% decrease from the previous close of ₹160.63. The last traded price was ₹157.20, indicating a day’s loss of 1.43%. IOC currently holds a market capitalization of ₹2,26,928 crores.

Future Considerations

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact permission status from Iran for the two oil tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Observers are also concerned about the long-term implications of the current disruptions in LPG supply, as India navigates its energy security amidst these challenges.

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As the Iran-Israel war continues, the global oil market has experienced significant fluctuations. Just before the key developments on March 10, 2026, crude oil prices were already under pressure due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil transport.

On this date, Brent crude prices plunged 17 percent to below $80 a barrel, although they later rebounded to near $90. This volatility reflects the market’s reaction to the ongoing conflict and its implications for oil supply.

In the United States, petroleum prices have risen about 17 percent since the start of the war, highlighting the broader impact on global energy markets. The International Energy Agency is now considering the largest release of oil reserves in its history to stabilize prices.

Meanwhile, the situation in India has become increasingly concerning. The war has led to fears of a serious liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) crisis, with reports indicating that restaurants in major cities like Chennai, Mumbai, and Bengaluru may face shutdowns due to LPG shortages.

To address these challenges, the Indian government has invoked the Essential Commodities Act to ensure equitable distribution of LPG. Currently, India has 33.2 crore active domestic LPG connections, with 90 percent of its consumption met through imports.

However, there is a significant supply gap of 2 million tonnes for LPG. To mitigate this, the Central government is securing 1 million tonnes of LPG from the United States, while 20 very large gas carriers are expected to deliver LPG to Indian ports.

The National Restaurant Association of India has expressed concerns, stating, “As per articles [in the media], the government has clarified that there is no ban on the supply of commercial LPG cylinders for the restaurant industry… but the ground situation is different…” This highlights the disconnect between official statements and the realities faced by businesses.

Additionally, M.K. Stalin, a prominent political figure, emphasized the need for the Union government to ensure that the LPG cylinder shortage does not adversely affect public services or commercial establishments in Tamil Nadu.

Market analysts have noted the ongoing risk of supply disruptions, with Chad Norville stating, “What we saw this week was the market briefly treating that risk as real and repricing supply disruption in earnest.”

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact duration of the war and its long-term impact on oil prices. The effectiveness of government measures to address the LPG shortage also remains uncertain.

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The US-Israeli war on Iran has escalated dramatically since its inception on February 28, 2026, following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. President Donald Trump has stated that the conflict will be over “very soon,” emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

As of now, the US and Israel have struck approximately 5,000 targets across Iran. This extensive military campaign has resulted in significant casualties, with Iran reporting 1,200 deaths and 10,000 injuries due to the ongoing conflict.

Trump characterized the military actions as a “short-term excursion,” suggesting a limited timeframe for the operations. He expressed his intent to escalate the conflict further if Iran obstructs oil supplies in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, stating, “We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world, if they do anything.”

In a recent press conference, Trump claimed that Iran’s missile capability has been reduced to 10 percent or less, indicating a significant weakening of their military strength. This assertion comes amid rising tensions and a backdrop of ongoing military engagements.

Trump also expressed disappointment over the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader, signaling concerns about the future direction of Iranian leadership. His administration remains focused on curtailing Iran’s influence in the region.

Additionally, Trump had a “positive phone call” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, discussing the intertwined conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. This diplomatic engagement highlights the broader geopolitical implications of the war.

The Brent crude oil price has surged to $119 per barrel during this conflict, reflecting the global economic impact of the hostilities. Trump’s administration is under pressure to manage both military and economic ramifications as the situation unfolds.

As the conflict continues, uncertainties remain regarding the potential for escalation and the long-term consequences for US-Israeli relations and regional stability. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the full scope of military operations and their outcomes.

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